Tuesday, August 14, 2012

MARC FABER: If I Had To Vote For Obama Or Romney, I'd Shoot Myself - Business Insider

Marc Faber, the famous investor and strategist, says that neither candidate in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election is worth voting for, at least if the goal is fixing the economy. In fact, says Faber, the Thailand-based author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, if you put a gun to his head and told him to pick a candidate to vote for, he'd say, "shoot."


Why is Faber so negative on the two candidates?


Because he thinks neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney will have the balls to do what it takes to get the economy back on track, which, in his opinion, is significantly cut government spending AND modestly raise taxes. Rather, he thinks, both candidates will just focus on remaining popular. Given that America will almost certainly choose one of these two candidates to be its next President, what is Faber's outlook for the U.S. economy? Continued crappy growth.


Faber's outlook for the rest of the world, meanwhile, is even less encouraging. Europe is already in a recession, he says, and Asia's growth has peaked and is starting to decline. Interestingly, Faber is not running away from stocks as a result of this dour view. Rather, he is starting to buy some stocks in Europe, because the valuations have gotten so slammed that he now finds the risk/reward profile attractive. And, with almost every government on earth trying to print its way out from under its huge debt load, Faber still remains a big fan of gold.

View the original article here

Faber sees market rally in Aug, but tough road thereafter - Moneycontrol.com

Faber sees market rally in Aug, but tough road thereafterIn an interview to CNBC-TV18, Marc Faber, editor and publisher of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report', speaks about the world markets swinging wildly between risk-on and risk-off.   .   Share  .  Email  .  Print  .  A+A- In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Marc Faber, editor and publisher of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report', speaks about the world markets swinging wildly between risk-on and risk-off.

Faber believes that equities may continue to rally from the current oversold levels. "The euro-dollar may have seen a bottom at least for the near-term," he said.


Below is an edited transcript of Faber's interview on CNBC-TV18.


Q: The world markets have been swinging wildly between risk-on and risk-off. What do you think is going to be the more dominant theme in the near-term?


A: In the near-term, I believe that markets can still rally somewhat for the simple reason that in every market you have a few strong stocks and they are breaking out on the upside. And then you have a lot of stocks that are down 40-50% and very oversold, so they can also rebound. We have a lot of liquidity in the world that has been created essentially by central bankers.


We have negative real interest rates practically everywhere. So if people keep their money on deposits, they are losing out in terms of purchasing power. The sentiment among investors, at the beginning of June, was very negative when the S&P bottomed out. So I think that we may still rally somewhat into August -- mid-August, end of August and then probably will have a tougher second half. In other words, September-October-November could be somewhat tougher months.


Q: So if you were to just put numbers to this, the S&P closed on Friday at 1390. How much would you give it in the case of an up move?


A: The high was this year on April 4 at 1422. I think it's possible, based on the few stocks that are strong and the rebound candidates, we will exceed that high. That maybe we move to 1450 or even 1500. But the difficulty at the present time is you have ousted expansionary monetary policies, zero interest rates in real terms and you have a slowdown in the global economy.


At the present time in Asia, we have practically no growth. In Europe, we are in recession. In the US, there is very little growth. So you are, on the one hand, faced with a lot of incoming liquidity created by central banks and on the second hand you have essentially a global economy that is slowing down where corporate profits will rather disappoint than exceed expectations.


Q: Would you be a seller in the strength over the next few weeks and do you see the levels of the June lows that you alluded to being broken in the September to November phase?


A: Yes, I think these lows could be exceeded and that it maybe October-November or after the US election we could have essentially a decline of around 20% in the market.


View the original article here

Monday, August 13, 2012

Marc Faber Avoiding Philippines, Indonesian Stocks; Waiting On China ... - Barron's (blog)

Marc Faber, self-described pessimist and regular Barron’s Roundtable participant, shares his take on Asian markets with Bloomberg Radio.


While the Chinese stock market has already discounted a lot of bad news, the “good companies” are not really inexpensive. He prefers to waitto see the results of the stimulus packages (which he thinks will fail).


His take on recently hot Philippines/Indonesian stocks: “I don’t think there is particularly good value at present time. He says the Chinese slowdown and European recession will make it difficult for Asian nations to grow from present levels.


Will the Chinese be able to stimulate consumption? Faber says it depends on consumer confidence, which he does not think is very high.


For the first time in his life, Faber says he has been buying European stocks.

MARC FABER: The S&P 500 Could Soar To 1500...Before Collapsing - Business Insider

In the near term, I believe that markets can still rally somewhat for the simple reason that in every market, you have a few strong stocks, and they are breaking out on the upside. Then, you have a lot of stocks that are down 40 or 50 percent and are very oversold, so they can also rebound…

I think that we may still rally somewhat into August – mid-August, end of August – and then probably we'll have a tougher second half. In other words, September, October, and November could be somewhat tougher months. The high was this year on April 4 at 1422. I think it's possible, based on the few stocks that are strong and the rebound candidates, that we will exceed that high – maybe move to 1450 or even 1500.

However, Faber warned that we're seeing "essentially a global economy that is slowing down, where corporate profits will rather disappoint than exceed expectations," which the stock market will catch on to eventually. When asked where he thought stocks would go during the "tougher second half" he sees this year, Faber replied, "I think these lows could be exceeded and I think it may be October or November – or after the U.S. election – we could essentially have a decline of around 20 percent in the market."

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