Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Conflicts and market volatility

I think there will be on this continent (Asia) a lot of struggle over resources. We have to live with a lot of volatility

Monday, February 25, 2013

Gold investing for your children and future


On investing in Gold:

I would strongly advise you, for your children and so forth, don't keep your money in cash.

I'm not saying rush out the door and buy gold, I'm just saying that over time it's likely that, as has happened throughout history, paper money has always lost value.

Friday, February 22, 2013

China economic growth

I would assume that the Chinese economy will grow at a much, much slower pace in the next 10 years . . . and this will have an impact on the demand for raw materials.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Oil demand will be strong

I think oil consumption in the world will continue to go up, but for some industrial commodities like iron ore and copper, China has probably reached a level where demand may not contract, but won't go up dramatically.


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

repeat of 1987 ?

If the markets continue with a very strong rally into the summer, as was the case in 1987, I would expect a correction, a significant market decline.

In the short term there can be a small correction, but then a rally will probably lead to a more significant top in 2013 which will not be exceeded for a while.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

China crisis money printing

On China being able to inflate their way out of an economic crisis:

I think they (Beijing) can again postpone a crisis, but this is probably the last time they can do it. After that, economic growth will come under a lot of pressure

Monday, February 18, 2013

China rising tensions


On the potential for rising tensions for valuable commodities and delivery routers:

What would you do if you were a military strategist in China and you knew all the oil (being imported into China) comes through the Straits of Malacca?


Turkey, Thailand short term overbought


 I would be careful of markets that have performed superbly last year such as Turkey and Thailand. They are in my opinion, becoming slowly overheated. I am not so sure to what extend India is overheated because currency adjusted, we are still way below the peak in 2007.

But, in general I would argue you should buy equities when everything looks horrible and when investors cannot see why the markets would go down.

That is the time to be careful because there is always something that will happen to send stock prices down.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Markets currently dependent on China

I think that the global economy will be crucial to what happens to China.

Do not forget, if the Chinese economy does not recover or recovers for a while, for say a couple of months and then slumps again or decelerates significantly, it would have an impact on raw materials and in this case on the economies of the raw material producers or the resource producers of the world.

We could have a shock for the global economy.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Market update


Stocks are up big to start 2013 but Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says it ends in tears.

"Either the market is going to correct more meaningfully now or we have a shallow correction and a continuously rising market until July or August," Faber told me via phone from Thailand. If stocks don't pullback soon, he says we risk a repeat of 1987 when stocks rallied 40% into summer only to collapse 41% in 2 months.

"In March of 2009 everything looked horrible, now nobody can find a reason why stocks could go down," Faber claims. "We ask that you should buy stocks when everything looks horrible, you shouldn't rush to buy them when everything looks perfect."

Market update


Stocks are up big to start 2013 but Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says it ends in tears.

"Either the market is going to correct more meaningfully now or we have a shallow correction and a continuously rising market until July or August," Faber told me via phone from Thailand. If stocks don't pullback soon, he says we risk a repeat of 1987 when stocks rallied 40% into summer only to collapse 41% in 2 months.

"In March of 2009 everything looked horrible, now nobody can find a reason why stocks could go down," Faber claims. "We ask that you should buy stocks when everything looks horrible, you shouldn't rush to buy them when everything looks perfect."

Market sometimes makes extreme moves

We have seen over 30 percent correction in Apple. So it is a reminder that stocks move up and they can also move down. My scenario for 2013 is either the market will make a peak relatively soon which will not be exceeded or we have a correction of a month or two and then another strong rally into August, such as we had in 1987 when the Dow Jones between January 1987 and August 1987 increased by 41 percent. However, it then lost 40 percent in two months.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Expecting a 10% correction

My scenario for 2013 is either the market will make a peak relatively soon which will not be exceeded or we have a correction of a month or two and then another strong rally into August.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Housing stocks are overvalued

Housing shares have rallied too much and are "ahead of the fundamentals, while miners look good at current valuations.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Marc Faber selling some shares

I am selling shares at the present time. I am reducing positions because there is euphoria building up.

You want to buy when people are fearful and sell into euphoria and bubbles.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

We could see crash of 1987


We are very overbought, but it is also possible that we have a mild correction in February and then a further increase in stock prices," Faber said on CNBC.

It would be "something that would be similar to '87 where in the first half of the year until August the market went up by 41 percent (only) to lose 40 percent in months in October and November. So it's a possibility that we have a lot of volatility this year in equity prices."

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Faber love markets setting for a big crash

For the first time in four years, since the lows in March 2009, I love this market because the higher it goes the more likely we will have a nice crash, a big time crash.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Stocks not cheap right now

The stock market is not that cheap anymore. Here in Asia we have many markets that are up 250 percent from the lows. That is not very inexpensive anymore. Let us put it this way...the stock market is discounting already a lot of the good news.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Markets will punish central banks worldwide

When you print money, the money doesn't flow evenly in an economy. It flows to some people or to some sectors first, and in this case, it flowed into equities, and until about five months ago, bonds… I believe that markets will punish central banks at some stage through an accident.

The bond market could collapse, and that could lead a stock market bubble.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

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