Thursday, May 2, 2013

Gloom Boom Doom report - May 2013


First, I am discussing capital flows and the general belief among some economists that trade and current account deficits do not matter because the money flows back in the form of investments in equities, bonds, real estate, direct investments, and corporate takeovers.

According to Barron’s Big Money Survey, “74% of large portfolio managers are bullish about stocks, which is the Highest Level Ever.” Time to be a contrarian?

I am reluctantly maintaining an approximately 25% weighting in equities (mostly in Asia and in Europe) and I have not yet shorted any stocks because I have learnt that a bubble can get bigger still and exceed my expectations - before it implodes violently.

I want to make clear that I own equities not because of the belief that they are inexpensive and that they will move up substantially but because I do not trust the banking system and, therefore, I do not wish to be overexposed to bank deposits.

Finally, has gold completed its correction and are we entering another major advance as the gold bugs tell us, or are we at the beginning of a major gold bear market as the bears want us to believe?

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